Old Firm today. Celtic vs Rangers. And the market might be getting this wrong. Rangers at 3.50? Value bet.
Celtic Under Wilfried Nancy
- Off-field tensions — board disputes and fan unrest — add to the pressure on Nancy and the team.
- Celtic have lost 5 of their last 7 matches since Wilfried Nancy took charge, with only two wins in that span — a very poor sequence for a club of their stature.
- Defensive problems have been glaring: they’ve conceded heavily and failed to keep clean sheets in their early run of games with Nancy. The Standard
These trends undermine the traditional narrative of Celtic as near-automatic favorites at Parkhead.
Why Rangers Look Stronger Than Their Odds
- Rangers come in with more consistent recent results, with several wins and few defeats and a generally more stable run than Celtic right now.
- Head-to-head and recent derby history also points to Rangers remaining competitive, often avoiding defeat in recent Old Firm meetings – they are unbeaten in the last six games against Celtic inside 90 minutes.
Despite Celtic’s historic strength at home and derby pedigree, the momentum swing clearly favors Rangers’s current competitive form more than the odds suggest.
🎯 Value Bet Angle
- If you estimate Rangers’s real chance of winning as closer to, say, 35–40% (which is supported by some models and recent performance indicators showing them often competitive and rarely beaten), then the bookmakers’ implied probability (~28.6%) understates their true likelihood of victory.
- That disconnect between your subjective probability and the bookmaker’s implied probability is exactly where value lies.
Bet Therapy Betting Tips
Rangers have clearly improved but Celtic are the story. They have dropped off horribly and Wilfried Nancy has worsened things. Rangers have a great record in the last couple of seasons against Celtic and there’s no reason why it won’t continue here.
📌Rangers at ~3.50 to win represents a value bet based on current form and recent trends — especially given Celtic’s concerning run under Nancy.
When you believe that the implied probability from the bookmaker’s odds is lower than yours calculated probability, you may consider it a value bet.
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